Tablet PCs - And the Winner IS... Apple (For Now)

There was a pretty interesting article in DigiTimes that said that most of the major hardware manufacturers were going to throw in the towel in terms of the tablet PC market, and instead focus on "ultrabooks" (not "netbooks" like they did 2 years ago).

Hmmmm....

If you don't know what an "ultrabook" is here's a video that explains it. Basically, think of the MacBook Air. It's a thin notebook PC that lacks an optical drive, has an "instant on", and will periodically "poll" the network for RSS updates, etc.

I guess hitting the "refresh" button on your web page was a little too cumbersome for some folks.

Oh yeah, and it has a physical keyboard.

YAWN.

"Ultrabook"? Really?

It's more like: "Hey we know how to build notebooks, but since we can't compete in the tablet market because our operating systems are too bloated with crap - let's just invent a new 'category' of devices because that's something we can control."

It's so funny to me that rather than try to make their mobile operating systems (Android and Mobile Windows 7 or 8) - work well and quickly on the more modest hardware of the tablet - they are just giving up and going back to the old status quo.

Oh sure, it has some brushed aluminum, and it's thinner and lighter than a "traditional" laptop or notebook - it's essentially the same thing.

And it's already be "done" - again, by Apple.

I know that Amazon's Kindle Fire is selling like gangbusters - but have you checked out their own product review page? People are saying - "it's cool - for what it is."

Meh.

People were really looking for a fast, elegant, responsive - and less expensive iPad. They thought - "Hey, it runs Android, has a browser... will be a perfect gift as a tablet PC for my loved one."

It turns out that most people who bought one (disclosure: I did not!) see it as a disappointing "knock off" that's slow, unresponsive and basically unusable as anything other than a nice eReader.

They were expecting a device that was just like the iPad but cheaper. Unfortunately (for them and for Amazon) all they got was cheaper not better.

Now, to be fair, Amazon says they are going to push out an over-the-air update in the next two weeks - and they're hinting around that there is a Fire 2.0 in the works. However, I think the damage may already be done. You don't really get a second chance to make a first impression (ummm... no physical volume buttons - really?).

Apple gets this.

Amazon doesn't. RIM doesn't. HP doesn't.

Even though the first iPhone had only a handful of apps (as did the iPad on launch); they got the experience correct. The look and feel. The buttery smooth interface animations. The small, light, yet "solid" feel of the hardware. The aesthetics. The simplicity of use.

Those things really resonate with customers - especially the performance and ease-of-use. Once you've used an iPhone or iPad for any length of time - just try puttering around on an Android phone or tablet...

It just feels like a cheap knockoff of the original in terms of both the interface experience (it's slow and jumpy and hard to click the tiny icons) and the hardware (bit kunky with multiple physical buttons at the bottom).

On the other hand, non-Apple devices are less expensive (on the whole).

Alas, it appears as if no company has come up with the have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too tablet...

Non MS OSes Gaining Ground

In order to celebrate my 300th blog entry - I decided to revert to one of my favorite topics: slamming Microsoft... and predicting the demise of this (truly) evil empire.

In what is just the latest in a long history of time-sucking, headache-inducing, blood-pressure-raising events - I stupidly set the auto-update of my parent's aging Dell (XP Professional) to on.

When it decided to do an SP3 update - it hosed the boot block of the hard drive. So, I used the recover CD to "repair" the install, issue a DOS "fixboot" and "chkdsk" commands - and go it to book back into windows.

The BAD news is that as soon as one of the profiles is clicked on - the installation script - in its infinite wisdom and desire to "help" - promptly resumed where it left off and proceeded to hose the boot block again.

The end result is that my parents have a useless computer - with outdated backups, and now I need to spend the better part of 2 days doing a full wipe/install/update.

THANKS Microsoft! Awesome QA!

Yes, I know - just because I'm pissed off about having to restore yet ANOTHER install of Windows (I've done it on my own machines countless times) - I'm really at the point of turning Windows into my occasionally-used-for-testing-only operating system.

I'm just sick of it. Sick of the 10 minute boot time, sick of the endless patches, sick of Service Packs that render printers useless, sick of the bloat, just sick of the OS, period.

So, I did a little looking around the Internet - and I'm seeing that there are LOTS more people just as fed up as I am - AND they're voting with their dollars.

People are into "mobile" and anything "small" and "portable."

I mean, really - when was the last time you bought a "desktop" computer? Sure, there are uses for dedicated desktop boxes for things like video-editing, music composing, hard-core software development, etc.

But, in the main, people are buying laptops - and now, netbooks.

Ah, netbooks. Netbooks are the new Model T - but they come in more colors than just black. And with more than one choice in processors. And with more than one choice of operating system.

These (usually) sub-$500 machines come with solid state 128MB hard drives, 1-2 GB of RAM, a VGA-out port (ok, ok, so the 1024 x 768 resolution sucks), a battery that lasts between 5 and 9 hours and an operating system that can be Windows XP, Ubuntu, and now - TA DA - Android (for less than $300!).

The combination of the price point, the capabilities and the fact that most people use their computers to surf the web, check email, do some word processing and spreadsheets - oh, and play games - and viola! It's huge hit in the making.

"Sure, sure", you're saying - "but that's just on the consumer side. Everyone knows that consumers will jump at anything that's inexpensive and shiny."

That's true - but these consumers WILL buy and adopt - and that WILL force corporate IT (and web designers, and major company webmasters) to sit up and take notice. Ever hear of the iPhone? Look what a profound change has (is) occurring because of it... sits have dedicated iPhone "versions" of their sites, IT has been forced to make MS Exchange work nice, and IT - at the end of the day - has had to bow to the mighty forces of "cool" and "useful" over their (in some cases) strenuous objections.

"Well, OK" - you concede. "But Windows is more than just a consumer OS - it's what powers more than half of all the back end servers in the world."

Yep - for sure. However, Linux is no slouch with almost 1 in 3 computers using that OS for their back end servers. Linux, in its various distributions and forms, has been battle-tested and has been proven in the real world over time. Linux isn't going away any time soon.

Sure, it won't displace Windows Server in the near term - but I think the adoption rates will flip-flop as more and more consumers get used to non-Windows devices. As consumers drive the adoption of more non-Windows devices and as more IT folks get used to supporting non-Windows devices - it's only logical that IT's adoption of non-Windows devices will increase as well.

Will the "winner" be Android? Or Oracle's Solaris? Or Ubuntu? Or Red Hat? Or some new operating system not invented yet? Dunno... all I know is - the sooner the better!

Google Is The Next Linux Desktop

Since HP announced that it was "thinking about" using Android as the operating system for its new netbooks, and since both Asus and Freescale have also announced plans to do so - I got to thinking about Linux on the desktop.

It's been the "holy grail" of Linux to find a home on the desktop as a real, viable alternative to Windows. However it's taken many, many years and there is still a lot of "competition" among the various Linux distributions as to who is best for the desktop user.

The current reigning champion in the desktop Linux world is Ubuntu - and it's been embraced by Dell and HP in various combinations and configurations for some time. HP even went so far as to write their own user interface for Ubuntu (be THAT was fun!).

Now, I really like Ubuntu - and I've installed it and have used it (at the GUI level - not at the command-prompt level) and it's pretty cool. It does take some getting used to - it's like switching to OpenOffice from MS Office. The features are "similar" and the paradigms are "similar" - but there are enough differences to where there is a slight learning curve.

The problem with Ubuntu is not the distribution. It's not the still somewhat lacking UI, it's not the limited number of applications (that part is improving in general). The reason that Ubuntu hasn't become the "real" alternative to Windows is the fact that Canonical, Ubuntu's developer, hasn't beat the consumer drum and put out a really slick GUI that people will love.

They haven't spent the marketing millions that it would require to drive "pull" adoption (people asking for it). They really don' t have the industry muscle to drive wide adoption.

However, there IS one company that has all those things and more: Google. Yep, ever since Android first appeared (and the collective groan about yet another mobile operating system rang out) - both developers and consumers have been interested in seeing if the search giant could bring to an operating system the "coolness" and simplicity it had to search.

It wasn't long after the first Google mobile phones shipped that some smart folks got the OS to run on a netbook - instead of just a phone. The netbook, just like a phone - uses the Atom processor - rather than an x86 processor found in "regular" computers. These little powerhouses sip the power and don't heat up to microwave-hot temperatures like the other chips do.

So, we have the brewing of a perfect storm: an operating system based on the free, open-source Linux kernel; a huge, international company with a huge consumer and business base of customers; a huge, international company with extremely deep pockets to spend on marketing (not to mention that 1 in 3 people who use the web visit their site EVERY DAY); brand-name hardware manufacturers who want to leverage Google's brand to move inexpensive hardware.

To be sure, there are other operating systems that might have a run - the WebOS by Palm (not likely), the Symbian OS (could be interesting - but it's years away) - or maybe even Ubuntu itself (but not until it runs on a phone!).

But, given Google's track record to try things; and the fact it's already invested a huge sum to make Android work on phones; and given the fact that iPhone users are turning into Mac users at a record rate... they could be on to something.

Microblog: OLPC Death of a Dream

Well, the pie-in-the-sky One Laptop Per Child program has called it quits after a tumultuous 3 years. The OLPC was hailed as the "$100 laptop" and had the noble and grand vision of providing accessible, easy-to-use hardware to people in developing countries.

There were a lot of great ideas - some of which actually came to pass. In fact, Nicholas Negroponte, founder of OLPC said at the TED Conference today that it was actually OLPC that helped to spark interest in the netbook class of portable computers. He even got up on stage and threw laptops and netbooks around - saying that if you tried to use them underwater or in a dusty African village - "they won’t work."

Ummmm.... yeah. Very few things do - unless they're military grade.

But, in the end, I think it was market forces that really pulled the grand vision back to earth. They never actually got to scale up the production - and because of that, they've had money problems almost from day one. They've produced over a half million units - and they're working in the field.

So, their new idea is to just open source everything and hope that another company (with much deeper pockets) will pick up where they left off and through the economies of scale - be producing (in Mr. Negroponte's words) "5 to 6 million machines, per month, in three years time."

Hmmm... OK - I hope so. However as a my friend Jan Aleman is fond of saying "Hope is NOT a strategy."

The Netbook Economy

As I sit here in the middle of the night listening to the rain outside (a big deal here in California!) - I can't help but think about the state of the economy, of netbooks, Apple and Microsoft (yeah, I know - I'm a geek!).

With Microsoft announcing a layoff of 5,000 (1 in 20 employees) over the next 18 months, and Apple poo-pooing netbooks in their latest analyst call - something snapped in my mind (not an unusual thing, believe me). I decided to dig a little deeper to try to get a handle on what was going on.

The Microsoft layoff was a long time in coming. I mean, they have been sucking off the tit of the Windows OS and Office since the beginning of time. With the entire Vista debacle and the "Ribbon bar" massacre in Office 2007 - not to mention the horrible me-too Zune MP3 player - plus the fact that their stock as been flat for years - they've "stumbled" as of late. Even though their profit is "only" down 11% (in a recession) - when you have the numbers that Microsoft does - that's a fairly healthy decline.

What's the cause? Or at least - what is Microsoft blaming? Well, according to Microsoft’s 10-Q filing on January 22:

“The decline in OEM revenue reflects an 11 percentage point decrease in the OEM premium mix to 64%, primarily driven by growth of licenses related to sales of netbook PCs, as well as changes in the geographic and product mixes. Revenue from commercial and retail licensing of Windows operating systems increased $113 million or 19%. Based on our estimates, total worldwide PC shipments from all sources was approximately flat, driven by increased demand in emerging markets, offset by decreased demand in mature markets.”

Huh? Netbooks? Netbooks are kicking Microsoft's ass? Impossible! Then I started to think about it... Netbooks run XP, not Vista. XP = less cash (unless you're Dell - but that's another story). But if I were Microsoft - I'd also offer very reduced prices on XP as a netbook OS - hell even give it away if it will keep people of the dreaded alternative - Linux.

So, OK, netbooks might figure into some of the numbers - I mean, after all, we ARE in a recession. With the rise of SaaS (Software as a Service) applications - people really don't need a 6 litre V-12 computer to fire up a browser and and webmail client in order to be productive.

People are not buying tons of new "real" laptops these days (except for perhaps new Apple MacBook Pros)... And, speaking of Apple - wassup with them? They are really, really pissy about netbooks - as evidenced by some quotes by Tim Cook, Apple's Chief Operating Officer their latest analyst call:

"We're watching that space, but right now from our point of view, the products in there are principally based on hardware that's much less powerful than we think customers want, software technology that is not good, cramped keyboards, small displays."

Ummmm... riiiiiiight.

Small displays? So... make a bigger one. Cramped keyboard - either make a touch screen one with iPhone keyboard, or... oh... I don't know - make a BIGGER one.

Folks, it ain't the hardware form factor that Apple is revolting against. It's the price point. The mere thought that they would have to sell basically a 13" MacBook not at $1,300 - $1,600, not even at the $999 price the "old" white on is selling at right now - but they would basically have to sell it for... wait for it... $399. That's the price of a fully-loaded iPhone!

I can just see Steve Jobs rolling over in his grave objecting to that kind of a price point. After all, they're the luxury brand. The cool kid on the block. They're not sold to the "commoners" in places like... like... Walmart... oh, wait, they are.

I think that despite what Apple has said publicly, they have been looking at netbooks. They do have some sort of device in the works. I think that they're just so scared of another Newton that they want to make sure it's a "real" market before they finally get with the game and stake their claim.

And, no one, I mean NO ONE wants to come out with a new product while Steve Jobs is on medical leave!

Size Matters

I just love it when big companies screw the pooch in trying to protect their profit margins. Today's case in point: Intel. You see, there are these new, cheap "mini" notebooks with stripped down size (and capabilities) that are commonly called "netbooks."

Intel supplies a large number of manufacturers with a tiny little CPU (called the Atom) for this new class of computers (as you would expect them to). However, the interesting thing - is that the marketplace really likes these little machines. They typically only have a 10" screen - so I'm not sure I could bear replacing my "real" laptop with one (yet) - but they have a long battery life and they're cheap.

Did I mention they're cheap? Like $300 cheap. Like less-than-an-iPhone cheap.

Dell and Samsung and a number of other manufacturers are going to get into the game as well - but they're going to up the screen size from 10" to 12". So, what's the big deal you're asking?

Well, for every netbook that comes out with bigger and better screens at a cheaper price point - that means that Intel is selling one less Dual Core processor it can sell. And, Dual Core processors are to Intel what Office is to Microsoft - the golden cash cow.

In fact, Michael Arrington over at TechCrunch asked Intel if they limit their manufacturers to using the Atom chip in notebooks with screens 10" or under. He got back an "interesting" reply:

We asked Intel if they forbid manufacturers to build Netbooks with larger than 10 inch screens, which is what those manufacturers are telling us (Dell notwithstanding). Their answer: “Intel defines a netbook as a 10″ or smaller screen size. We recommend that OEMs and netbook manufacturers use that guideline as well in order to get the best user experience.”

Ummmm.... yeah... read: "We don't want them to - but we can't stop them because we want to keep selling our more expensive chips to them."

Intel seems to be falling into the same trap as Microsoft - namely the one where they want to dictate to the world what form factor and hardware should take to justify the status quo. Bad move, guys.

Intel's problem here is that - big surprise - the consumer is SO DONE with being inundated with crap that doesn't work or doesn't give them control - just to maintain "the way things have always been done." To wit: there are a couple of other chip makers who are getting on the netbook bandwagon in a big way: AMD with it's just-announced Yukon processor and Via Technologies with their faster (and cheaper) Nano processor.

I'm sure the "wagging" and name-calling isn't over by a long shot - but this is going to be a very interesting space to watch. In a way, it's the beginning of a "perfect storm" in terms of market needs matching technology. We're in a recession - so cash is tight. If you can spend $400 and get 75% of the functionality you need - you're going to think twice about spending $2,000 for the extra 25%.

If you access the majority of your software via a browser or some other hosted service - do you really need that extra 25% capability "that you always had?"

And what if the manufacturers bump up the screen size to 14"? And maybe add a solid-state hard drive? And still keep the price around $500-$600?

And the big question - what if Apple decides that it wants to get into the netbook game? Oh yeah, and remember Apple just bought their own chip manufacturing company...

If I were someone important at Intel - I would sure be coming up with a strategy right about now...