What IS a "PC" Anyway?

I've been thinking about PCs lately (as in "Personal Computers" not "Politically Correct"). When us old timers think of a "PC" we generally think of that first IBM PC or the Apple II - with the glowing green screen, and a hip, cool user interface called DOS.

I bet if you asked my kids what "PC" means - they would say "Politically Correct" (hopefully). To them, there is no concept of a "personal" computer because they grew up in a world where all computers are "personal." In their limited experience these computing devices are the default:

1. A computer (or two) in your house
2. A mobile telephone ("but my phone sucks - I need a smartphone")
3. A tablet
4. An e-reader
5. A XBOX 360 (or Wii)
6. A handheld (non-phone) gaming platform
7. Video screen in the car
8. Streaming custom radio station based on your music preferences (e.g. Pandora, Spotify)

We of the older generation didn't have any of these things growing up. Here's our list:

1. A rock
2. A cardboard box
3. Duct Tape
4. 5 Hot Wheels cars
5. Hammer and nails
6. Firecrackers (or some other equally dangerous explosives)
7. Pong (if you were LUCKY!)
8. 8 track tapes - and then cassettes (if you were a 1%er back then)

When "personal" computers came out - it was a revolutionary concept. "A computer in every home" was such a far-fetched idea that it simply boggled the imagination.

Once the PC came out - there was a "war." The war between operating systems that has raged for 20+ years. Microsoft became the dominant player - because they were first with some business applications that went along with the hardware that IBM was selling into businesses.

Apple was trying (sort of) to do the same thing - but they focused less on business and more on education and the hobbyist. The techie. The artistic nerds.

And so the battle "raged" on (not really - because Apple only had 3% to 5% of the worldwide market, anyway). There are passionate "Windows" guys, and passionate "Mac" aficionados - and even a small sect of Linux lovers.

Then, came the iPhone. The paradigm of what computing "should be" and "could be" changed. Forever. A phone with no buttons. A phone that was a slab of glass. A phone that could surf the web. A phone that could contain "apps" that would amuse/help/inform/guide/save-your-sorry-lost-butt... a phone that would (later) include FaceTime video conferencing (hello, Jetsons!)...

Then, came the Android phone.

Then came the iPad.

Then came the Samsung Galaxy Tab and the Amazon Kindle Fire.

Then came the end of the "personal computer."

What's coming next?

There's talk of a Facebook phone running a modified version of Android (yes, a Facebook Operating System... *groan* ) so you could obsessively update your status 24/7. There are already 5 variants of tablets coming in the next quarter - and desktop computer sales have fallen off considerably. Mac OS X for non-phone, non-tablet computers has been re-vamped to include features from the iOS version. Microsoft is jonesing to get their Windows 7 Phone platform going with Nokia.

There are free applications for personal music, personal text messaging, group text chat, group video chat. We can Linkedin our Tublr Facebook Twitter stream with our Flickr YouTube Picasa stream to broadcast our lives in realtime.

We have phones with 5-10 megapixel cameras. That also do VIDEO. That we can upload LIVE at the event!

We can buy books, movies, TV shows with a single click from our phone then watch them on our TV at home - or on our laptop on an airplane.

Yes, the term "PC" ("Personal Computing") is as dead as Flash. Information is becoming a a commodity - sharing our pictures, where we are, what we "like" and what we stand for in a live 24 hour per day, 7 day per week stream - now that is personal computing.

Non MS OSes Gaining Ground

In order to celebrate my 300th blog entry - I decided to revert to one of my favorite topics: slamming Microsoft... and predicting the demise of this (truly) evil empire.

In what is just the latest in a long history of time-sucking, headache-inducing, blood-pressure-raising events - I stupidly set the auto-update of my parent's aging Dell (XP Professional) to on.

When it decided to do an SP3 update - it hosed the boot block of the hard drive. So, I used the recover CD to "repair" the install, issue a DOS "fixboot" and "chkdsk" commands - and go it to book back into windows.

The BAD news is that as soon as one of the profiles is clicked on - the installation script - in its infinite wisdom and desire to "help" - promptly resumed where it left off and proceeded to hose the boot block again.

The end result is that my parents have a useless computer - with outdated backups, and now I need to spend the better part of 2 days doing a full wipe/install/update.

THANKS Microsoft! Awesome QA!

Yes, I know - just because I'm pissed off about having to restore yet ANOTHER install of Windows (I've done it on my own machines countless times) - I'm really at the point of turning Windows into my occasionally-used-for-testing-only operating system.

I'm just sick of it. Sick of the 10 minute boot time, sick of the endless patches, sick of Service Packs that render printers useless, sick of the bloat, just sick of the OS, period.

So, I did a little looking around the Internet - and I'm seeing that there are LOTS more people just as fed up as I am - AND they're voting with their dollars.

People are into "mobile" and anything "small" and "portable."

I mean, really - when was the last time you bought a "desktop" computer? Sure, there are uses for dedicated desktop boxes for things like video-editing, music composing, hard-core software development, etc.

But, in the main, people are buying laptops - and now, netbooks.

Ah, netbooks. Netbooks are the new Model T - but they come in more colors than just black. And with more than one choice in processors. And with more than one choice of operating system.

These (usually) sub-$500 machines come with solid state 128MB hard drives, 1-2 GB of RAM, a VGA-out port (ok, ok, so the 1024 x 768 resolution sucks), a battery that lasts between 5 and 9 hours and an operating system that can be Windows XP, Ubuntu, and now - TA DA - Android (for less than $300!).

The combination of the price point, the capabilities and the fact that most people use their computers to surf the web, check email, do some word processing and spreadsheets - oh, and play games - and viola! It's huge hit in the making.

"Sure, sure", you're saying - "but that's just on the consumer side. Everyone knows that consumers will jump at anything that's inexpensive and shiny."

That's true - but these consumers WILL buy and adopt - and that WILL force corporate IT (and web designers, and major company webmasters) to sit up and take notice. Ever hear of the iPhone? Look what a profound change has (is) occurring because of it... sits have dedicated iPhone "versions" of their sites, IT has been forced to make MS Exchange work nice, and IT - at the end of the day - has had to bow to the mighty forces of "cool" and "useful" over their (in some cases) strenuous objections.

"Well, OK" - you concede. "But Windows is more than just a consumer OS - it's what powers more than half of all the back end servers in the world."

Yep - for sure. However, Linux is no slouch with almost 1 in 3 computers using that OS for their back end servers. Linux, in its various distributions and forms, has been battle-tested and has been proven in the real world over time. Linux isn't going away any time soon.

Sure, it won't displace Windows Server in the near term - but I think the adoption rates will flip-flop as more and more consumers get used to non-Windows devices. As consumers drive the adoption of more non-Windows devices and as more IT folks get used to supporting non-Windows devices - it's only logical that IT's adoption of non-Windows devices will increase as well.

Will the "winner" be Android? Or Oracle's Solaris? Or Ubuntu? Or Red Hat? Or some new operating system not invented yet? Dunno... all I know is - the sooner the better!

It's A Cloud, Cloud, Cloud World

I had my iPhone cranked up listening to my "favorites" channel and just let my mind wonder.... and in one of my rare moments of clarity - I was thinking about the future of computing. I come to the decision that the future of computing will not be about hardware, or operating systems, or which applications are "better" than others - it will all come down to a single thing: the screen.

Yep, that's it. The screen.

I think that the computing experience for most people (within the next 10 years) will be based around cloud services that are delivered to whatever device you happen to be using. Those devices could be fixed - like your TV, or to a thin PC, or a laptop-like device (nettop, netbook, laptop), or even your mobile phone.

The days of installing patches and fixes and hot fixes will be a thing of the past - since your operating system will be running in the cloud - there will be some poor IT schmoe someplace that has to deal with all the hassles and compatibility problems - and your system will just always be "up to date."

You'll always have the latest versions of all the software you use - or "subscribe" to - and you'll pay for computing services much the way you do for electricity or phone service. Companies will vie for your business by providing content "channels" that you can subscribe to.

If you like the Apple OS - then subscribe to the Apple Channel. Prefer Vista? Too bad, Microsoft won't have a channel until they see that Apple has dominated the space and then will try to build their entirely own complete service rather than just have a channel that people can subscribe to... but I digress.

These software (and services) "channels" would all co-exist in your main "session" - and would be available (and configurable) as either icons or as services that are already running. You could just switch between channels the way you do now - with Alt+Tab or by clicking an icon.

There would be free channels (like basic cable) - and then premium content (I predict that porn folks will be an early adopter) would be available. Whether you're interested in sports and want to see live video, or have an instance of a browser loaded with links to all your favorite teams - it's all pre-configured in the "ESPN Sports Channel."

Likewise, if you're a news junkie, love cooking, or can't get enough celebrity gossip - the content will be available in a unified manner. Video, websites, applications, premium content - ready to go and able to be delivered on whatever device you're watching where ever you are.

The issue of whether to buy a new Xbox or Playstation will be a thing of the past. You can have both - just subscribe to the channel(s). It will come with some basic games, and you can add others on a rental basis - or as a flat fee (like today). Rather than having 200 game jewel cases lying around - the game provider would collect payment and install the instance of the game on in your session. It would be ready nearly instantly.

What about the more "mundane" tasks of email, presentations, collaboration, word processing and (the dreaded) spreadsheet? Those would all be handled at an "at work" channel. It could be branded by your company - and you can have a "home office" channel as well as a "London office" channel. All your data will be stored just as you left it - files in folders like you have today.

There would be some limited local storage for the rare occasion you're not connected to the network - documents will be stored and forwarded when you connect again. Each channel would make certain applications available offline (although not all apps) - but it really won't be an issue. We'll look at good, reliable access to the Internet like we do electricity and sewer services. It will be everywhere - mostly all the time.

You'll be able to easily move data between channels and have all your documents accessible from all the other channels as well. You can seamlessly share and collaborate with others - with text or video like you can today with instant messaging and video chat.

In other words - your computing experience will be amazingly similar to what it is today, and all you have to buy is a HDTV, mobile phone or other device of your choice - and chances are you already have all the hardware you'll need.

Rather than tossing (or donating) that "old" cell phone or laptop or desktop - you can just pick up a new one at any store, kiosk or outlet - log into your provider and whammo - all your stuff is there. No more local backups (but you can if you want to), no more downloading and installing programs over on the new computer, the hours of setup, the restoration of all your preferences - it will all "just work."

Yes, I think the pendulum is swinging back to the "centralized" computer model. That's why mainframes haven't gone away - they've just been waiting for this next round of "what's old is new." Well, the time is coming.

The virtualization software is getting better and better and cheaper and cheaper. The delivery mechanisms for delivering the specific user sessions and price of mass online storage are nearing the zero mark. There are some technical and infrastructure hurdles, to be sure - but it's all within the realm of what's happening in terms of growing consumer (and business) acceptance of SaaS applications and cheap, commodity hosted virtual systems.

And now - with the Obama White House printing money like it's going out of style for infrastructure upgrades - I'm hopeful that within 5 years I will be able to actually have ONE cell conversation without having one side or the other drop.... but that's another story.

The iPhone Tablet

In a call a couple of weeks ago Apple's CFO, Peter Oppenheimer, had a call with financial analysts in which he mentioned a "product transition" seven times. Of course, in typical Apple fashion - details were sketchy (as in NONE provided) - but I was thinking about it today in the shower and I have some speculation of my own.

I think it's going to be a tablet PC.

Yep, you heard right - a tablet PC. It's really not caught on all that much (except for vertical industry uses) - but I think if Apple just "super-sized" the iPhone - it would make one helluva a computer.

Add in a USB or FireWire port, keep the GPS chip, add a SuperDrive and a dual core Intel chip - done. This baby would run OS X (natch) - but, at least in theory, could run Winblows XP or even Ubuntu. But the version of OS X should be the "full" version - not some cut down iPhone-like OS.

It could also be offered in a couple of sizes - like a super compact 8 inch - a 10 and a 12 inch version. It would have the highly debated on-screen keyboard, but with a USB connector (and some sort of kick stand) it could have the ability to have an external keyboard and prop itself up as a horizontal or vertical monitor.

They have the handwriting technology left over from the doomed Newton - so throwing that into the OS might be a good idea as well.

It would ideally have a replaceable battery (HELLO!) - a padded carrying case (like those wetsuit-style material "condoms" for the MacBook) - and the ability to "dock" to something. I'm thinking an iMac sort of screen with a place to "pop in" the thing.

And price - yeah, well if it were < $800 (starter) - I bet a bunch of people would buy them.

Including me...