Turning Your Phone Into A PC

Microsoft is still trying to take over the world. This time, they're after your phone. No, they didn't come out with a new version of their Windows Mobile operating system - instead they've basically patented a device that's a uber docking station.

The thought here is similar to one I voiced back in June 2008 - the coming of "PocketTops." As smart phones get smarter and more powerful - the benefit of the form factor (small enough to fit in your pocket) becomes its biggest liability (you can fit it in your pocket). If you've ever tried to type anything more than a short email on these things - you know what I'm talking about.

Even the iPhone - which is mostly screen - is tedious to view large numbers of sites (not to mention the lack of a way to display Flash stuff), and really doesn't have enough storage on it to replace even a cheap netbook.

What if you were able to take your smart phone and dock it like a laptop? You could then use connected full size keyboard, mouse, monitor and have access to all your peripherals as well. Of course, there would have to be some kind of "glue" to translate phone commands into commands that the connected objects would understand, and of course there would need to be storage for drivers, and some other goodies for managing ports, etc.

Hey! I know! How about a thing called... "a computer"? That would work!

Yep, Microsoft basically just patented the computer. However, they knew they couldn't just patent the computer, that would be too broad... so they applied for and just received a patent for a "Smart Interface System For Mobile Computing Devices."

It's more than just a "cradle" - it slices, it dices, it transcodes video, it send keyboard and mouse streams to the device... and if you act right now - you'll get a free toaster.

On the surface it sounds like a pretty cool idea. When you think about it a bit more - it blows. Why? Do you really want another device that's basically a computer - running some crazy subset of Windows Vista (only "lighter") that has to talk to your phone (Windows Mobile, only - no doubt).

Why not just create a "dumb" dock that will do the same thing via software? Seems to me that it would be a lot easier to keep your nettop or laptop - and have an all-in-one device that is portable and useable, rather than just a dumb computer that can only act like a glorified USB cable.

The idea is OK - it's just the execution that is a bit tedious. I think in the future there will be a computer that you can fit into your pocket (ok, ok - so most smart phones are already more powerful than the 386 clones of yesteryear) - but there's a lot of work that needs to be done on the peripherals side to make it all work.

For example big screens that you can just unroll or unfold, keyboards that can be projected on to any surface (or at least ones that are rollable and small), a wireless USB standard that would do away with the need for wires and cables, etc.

The fact of the matter is - the state of peripherals is getting very close. All of the things I just mentioned are either on the market or are coming this year. The handsets are getting much more powerful - and I predict we'll see our first multi-core model by late 2009 or early 2010. We already have solid state drives coming into the marketplace, 5 megapixel mobile phone cameras, and some projectors that are the size of a pack of cigarettes.

The idea of a PocketTop is coming - but I just hope it's the way it "should" be - rather than the way Microsoft sees it.

Virtual Desktop Apdoption Is a Social Issue

I was thinking about virtualization - as it seems to be all the rage. Companies both big and small have made the move to reducing the number of physical servers in their IT departments to save on cost, cooling, maintenance in a bid to save money and appear more "green."

So what about desktop virtualization? What's up with that? It makes sense that if servers can be virtualized, then desktops should be as well (there are several technologies that will allow this today).

If the tech isn't an issue - what's the deal? Why have people (and companies) been slow on the uptake in terms of virtualizing everything?

I think the issues are more social and economic than linked to technology:

IT Folks - They are already overworked. They have tons of "initiatives" on their plate - and with a slow economy everyone is in the "cost cutting" mode. In addition, although they would love to "control" everything - that brings on the horror of having additional support issues ("I can't get to my desktop from this Internet Cafe in Bornio").

Cost - More servers cost money. Getting people with expertise in those technologies also costs money. Updating and/or replacing hardware on the use side - also costs money. IT investments are generally looked upon as "what have you done for me today" type of expenses. Those budgets are rarely increased in economic slow downs - and are almost always frozen (if not cut).

Licensing - This is where things get a little tricky. Just because you have multiple OS licenses for individual workstations - does that mean you can just aggregate them all on a single set of servers? How about the productivity apps that everyone uses (and guaranteed there is someone that uses some weird-ass, one-off app that no one's even heard of). Who's going to maintain compliance on all those licenses? How are people supposed to learn what the license terms are for the software they have purchased. Clearly, there needs to be an industry-wide initiative to make this a standard part of pricing/licensing.

Change Itself - Try to explain the benefits of having a virtualized desktop application to a person that enters orders all day. Or to someone that doesn't spend 1/2 their life on the road. I don't think they'll see this as the automatic answer to all their problems. Why should they learn something new - when what they have (in their mind) isn't even broken (that badly)?

Overall, I don't think we're quite ready for the "Thin PC" vision of Sun. People are still attached to their laptops and are used to having the freedom to install crazy apps (where permitted). With the rise of PocketTop computers (TM) [!] - like the Eee PC and iPhone (and more to come, no doubt) - it might gain some traction.

For now, it seems like a solution in search of a problem to me.

Bob's Cystal Ball: PocketTops

With the run-up to the iPhone 3G introduction and the changing of the guard over at Microsoft, I got to thinking about the future of computing and about what the landscape will look like 3-5 years down the road.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict that within the next couple of years we'll see the decline of the laptops and the increase of mobile devices that will be able to function like our laptops do today.

I think that Apple is trying to build more than just a mobile device - I think they're trying to build an entire platform. The little iPhone has it's own operating system (based on Linux), it's own SDK, and it's linked in to millions of copies of iTunes.

So people will start writing the default applications: games, crm links, word processing, spreadsheets, etc. Apple is moving toward the online synch and storage (mobileMe) and AJAX-ifying it's own applications in the cloud for use anywhere on any platform. They also announced wireless FireWire.

It makes total sense that the iPhone would become a true mobile computer in your pocket - or a PocketTop. I can envision on the road with the "normal" iPhone (and the smaller screen) when on the plane; it would wirelessly connect with a monitor and keyboard in my office; would wirelessly connect to my car's audio system; would allow me to wirelessly connect to a projector in a meeting room; etc.

That would be a device I'd buy in a MINUTE. And, I think a lot of others would as well.

To be sure, there are some technical hurdles - like processor power, battery life, solid state storage and faster mobile (4G) networks that need to be solved before this can happen - but I think we'll see these advances in the next couple of years.

In fact, handhelds are advancing faster than laptops - in terms of memory and CPU prowess. Laptop memory capacity typically doubles every two years, while pocket devices are those gains annually.

To be sure - there will always be room for bigger "real" machines in server rooms, etc. - but I think that about 85%-90% of people who are using laptops today would buy a PocketTop with similar capabilities - assuming they could use it everywhere.

Now I only hope I don't lose it...