What IS a "PC" Anyway?

I've been thinking about PCs lately (as in "Personal Computers" not "Politically Correct"). When us old timers think of a "PC" we generally think of that first IBM PC or the Apple II - with the glowing green screen, and a hip, cool user interface called DOS.

I bet if you asked my kids what "PC" means - they would say "Politically Correct" (hopefully). To them, there is no concept of a "personal" computer because they grew up in a world where all computers are "personal." In their limited experience these computing devices are the default:

1. A computer (or two) in your house
2. A mobile telephone ("but my phone sucks - I need a smartphone")
3. A tablet
4. An e-reader
5. A XBOX 360 (or Wii)
6. A handheld (non-phone) gaming platform
7. Video screen in the car
8. Streaming custom radio station based on your music preferences (e.g. Pandora, Spotify)

We of the older generation didn't have any of these things growing up. Here's our list:

1. A rock
2. A cardboard box
3. Duct Tape
4. 5 Hot Wheels cars
5. Hammer and nails
6. Firecrackers (or some other equally dangerous explosives)
7. Pong (if you were LUCKY!)
8. 8 track tapes - and then cassettes (if you were a 1%er back then)

When "personal" computers came out - it was a revolutionary concept. "A computer in every home" was such a far-fetched idea that it simply boggled the imagination.

Once the PC came out - there was a "war." The war between operating systems that has raged for 20+ years. Microsoft became the dominant player - because they were first with some business applications that went along with the hardware that IBM was selling into businesses.

Apple was trying (sort of) to do the same thing - but they focused less on business and more on education and the hobbyist. The techie. The artistic nerds.

And so the battle "raged" on (not really - because Apple only had 3% to 5% of the worldwide market, anyway). There are passionate "Windows" guys, and passionate "Mac" aficionados - and even a small sect of Linux lovers.

Then, came the iPhone. The paradigm of what computing "should be" and "could be" changed. Forever. A phone with no buttons. A phone that was a slab of glass. A phone that could surf the web. A phone that could contain "apps" that would amuse/help/inform/guide/save-your-sorry-lost-butt... a phone that would (later) include FaceTime video conferencing (hello, Jetsons!)...

Then, came the Android phone.

Then came the iPad.

Then came the Samsung Galaxy Tab and the Amazon Kindle Fire.

Then came the end of the "personal computer."

What's coming next?

There's talk of a Facebook phone running a modified version of Android (yes, a Facebook Operating System... *groan* ) so you could obsessively update your status 24/7. There are already 5 variants of tablets coming in the next quarter - and desktop computer sales have fallen off considerably. Mac OS X for non-phone, non-tablet computers has been re-vamped to include features from the iOS version. Microsoft is jonesing to get their Windows 7 Phone platform going with Nokia.

There are free applications for personal music, personal text messaging, group text chat, group video chat. We can Linkedin our Tublr Facebook Twitter stream with our Flickr YouTube Picasa stream to broadcast our lives in realtime.

We have phones with 5-10 megapixel cameras. That also do VIDEO. That we can upload LIVE at the event!

We can buy books, movies, TV shows with a single click from our phone then watch them on our TV at home - or on our laptop on an airplane.

Yes, the term "PC" ("Personal Computing") is as dead as Flash. Information is becoming a a commodity - sharing our pictures, where we are, what we "like" and what we stand for in a live 24 hour per day, 7 day per week stream - now that is personal computing.

Win Mobile 8 - "Plug-In Free" (HA!)

From time-to-time I have a gander at the Windows 8 blog - just to see what's happening in the world of "me-too." In one of the recent posts - Dean Hachamovitch (IE Team Leader) wrote about the fact that IE 10 will come in two flavors - one for mobile and one for desktop.

Why?

Seems that Microsoft has decided that Steve Jobs truly is an oracle of the future - and that HTML5 is awesome and the way to go:

For the web to move forward and for consumers to get the most out of touch-first browsing, the Metro style browser in Windows 8 is as HTML5-only as possible, and plug-in free. The experience that plug-ins provide today is not a good match with Metro style browsing and the modern HTML5 web.

Ummmm... what the? Huh. But it gets even better:

On Windows 8, consumer sites and “line of business” applications that require legacy ActiveX controls will continue to run in the desktop browser, and people can tap “Use Desktop View” in Metro style IE for these sites. For what these sites do, the power of HTML5 makes more sense, especially in Windows 8 apps.

I'm sorry - did I miss the part where he basically says that Silverlight (a browser plug-in) will NOT run on their own mobile operating system? And what about all those legacy Active-X controls? What are the thousands of Corporate American companies going to do when all their vendors who wrote their web-based intranet applications specifically for IE suddenly don't work on their CEO's new Windows 8 tablet?

I get the part about not wanting to run Flash (no one does - apparently) - but there is something even more subtle thrown in to the text:

 In Windows 8, IE 10 is available as a Metro style app and as a desktop app. The desktop app continues to fully support all plug-ins and extensions. The HTML5 and script engines are identical and you can easily switch between the different frame windows if you’d like.

Did you notice the word "extensions" in there? So, apparently, IE 10 Metro will not even support browser extensions!

Wow.

That's really, really good news for Apple. Because if you can't run Flash, and you can't run Silverlight, and you can't run Active-X controls - then you might as well get the tablet all the "cool kids" have - the iPad.

Windows 8: Gimme Some Ribbons! (Oh, and an App Store!)

Microsoft is due to release Windows 8 sometime in 2012. Wait - what?

Yes, yes, I know. It's been only a scant two years (July 22, 2009) since they came out with Windows 7... but Windows 7 was really a response to the horrible, detestable, unusable, P.O.S called "Vista" that debuted in November of 2006.

I mean, come on - they had to do SOMETHING. Even they knew Vista was crap - and, more importantly, businesses were not paying them their ransom licensing fees for the new operating system. They were just fine with Windows XP - and most of them had finally got all their drivers working and all their users on to a unified version of Internet Exploder so that all their expensive ERP software would run.

This worked well for corporate America - not so much for Microsoft. They had to do something...

Now, personally, I actually like Windows 7. It's a huge improvement over Vista (actually a typewriter would be a huge improvement over Vista) - and, in general, it's very well-behaved. So, why would Microsoft spend so much time and money trying to come out with yet another new version of the operating system so "soon" after Windows 7?

One word: Apple.

They are jealous (along with the rest of the Fortune 500) of Apple's success in the phone market, the tablet market and the mobile operating system space. Oh yeah, and their new, all-digital application delivery marketplace. And their market capitalization. And their developer mindshare. And... well, you get the idea.

It's sort of like when the whole "Internet thing" appeared - and they got caught with their pants down by not having a web browser. They scrambled around, licensed Spyglass Mosaic source code (for a quarterly fee plus a percentage of Microsoft's non-Windows revenues) and unleashed Internet Explorer into the marketplace. Eventually, because of their huge installed base, IE became the defacto browser... 

Enter 2011 - and the i-everything. Apple surprisingly ate everyone's lunch in terms of mobile operating systems - and that really goes up Microsoft's backside - sideways. I mean, after all - they are the "inventors" of the modern operating system. They should be the #1 mobile operating system. They deserve the continued love of OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) who bundle their operating system on their devices and on their computers.

Right?

Nope.

So, they are now doing what they always do - ripoff and copy "embrace and extend." Only the world is a much different place than it was years ago. People are more sophisticated and can spot the fact that they are playing catch-up and struggling to remain relevant... and they don't want to look stupid by blatantly ripping off Apple's paradigms (again!) - so they are "innovating."

According to a post on Microsoft's Building Windows 8 blog - they have come up with just the right thing to ensure that everyone with XP or Windows 7 will just drop everything and upgrade to Windows 8. Wait for it... YES! You're right! They're adding that stupid ribbon to the file explorer! YES! FINALLY!

Oh, and they're not going to give you the option of turning it off - and going back to the current, non-ribbon interface.

Really.

You think I'm kidding?

I mean, I get that Microsoft is in love with the whole Ribbon thing. They have scads of information on usage patterns based on the fact that most people don't uncheck the "send anonymous useage to the mothership" checkbox on install. They can justify it all they want - but I think it BLOWS. Here's some images from their blog that shows the evolution of the File Manager - from DOS to Windows 7:

Now, here's what the new Windows 8 File Manager will look like:

I know, right?!? Sheesh.

Oh yeah, and they'll have an App Store... and it will run on a wider range of devices - including those with ARM processors (read: almost all non-Apple mobile devices)... AND one MORE killer feature - they're completely re-thinking the... wait for it... the file collision dialog(!) YES! HOORAY! I can see how spending millions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of man hours going from this:

To this...

... is totally going to make everyone in the universe toss out all their tested, verified, digitally signed, secure installs of Windows XP and Windows 7 to upgrade!

NOT.

Turning Your Phone Into A PC

Microsoft is still trying to take over the world. This time, they're after your phone. No, they didn't come out with a new version of their Windows Mobile operating system - instead they've basically patented a device that's a uber docking station.

The thought here is similar to one I voiced back in June 2008 - the coming of "PocketTops." As smart phones get smarter and more powerful - the benefit of the form factor (small enough to fit in your pocket) becomes its biggest liability (you can fit it in your pocket). If you've ever tried to type anything more than a short email on these things - you know what I'm talking about.

Even the iPhone - which is mostly screen - is tedious to view large numbers of sites (not to mention the lack of a way to display Flash stuff), and really doesn't have enough storage on it to replace even a cheap netbook.

What if you were able to take your smart phone and dock it like a laptop? You could then use connected full size keyboard, mouse, monitor and have access to all your peripherals as well. Of course, there would have to be some kind of "glue" to translate phone commands into commands that the connected objects would understand, and of course there would need to be storage for drivers, and some other goodies for managing ports, etc.

Hey! I know! How about a thing called... "a computer"? That would work!

Yep, Microsoft basically just patented the computer. However, they knew they couldn't just patent the computer, that would be too broad... so they applied for and just received a patent for a "Smart Interface System For Mobile Computing Devices."

It's more than just a "cradle" - it slices, it dices, it transcodes video, it send keyboard and mouse streams to the device... and if you act right now - you'll get a free toaster.

On the surface it sounds like a pretty cool idea. When you think about it a bit more - it blows. Why? Do you really want another device that's basically a computer - running some crazy subset of Windows Vista (only "lighter") that has to talk to your phone (Windows Mobile, only - no doubt).

Why not just create a "dumb" dock that will do the same thing via software? Seems to me that it would be a lot easier to keep your nettop or laptop - and have an all-in-one device that is portable and useable, rather than just a dumb computer that can only act like a glorified USB cable.

The idea is OK - it's just the execution that is a bit tedious. I think in the future there will be a computer that you can fit into your pocket (ok, ok - so most smart phones are already more powerful than the 386 clones of yesteryear) - but there's a lot of work that needs to be done on the peripherals side to make it all work.

For example big screens that you can just unroll or unfold, keyboards that can be projected on to any surface (or at least ones that are rollable and small), a wireless USB standard that would do away with the need for wires and cables, etc.

The fact of the matter is - the state of peripherals is getting very close. All of the things I just mentioned are either on the market or are coming this year. The handsets are getting much more powerful - and I predict we'll see our first multi-core model by late 2009 or early 2010. We already have solid state drives coming into the marketplace, 5 megapixel mobile phone cameras, and some projectors that are the size of a pack of cigarettes.

The idea of a PocketTop is coming - but I just hope it's the way it "should" be - rather than the way Microsoft sees it.

Symbian Goes Open

Oh goodie! Another mobile platform is going open source! Now there will be TOTAL fragmentation and a sea of incompatible devices for everyone. Yeah!

Nokia is going to buy out the remaining shares in Symbian that is doesn't already own for $410 million and is planning on contributing Symbian and it's S60 (Series 60) platform to the newly formed "Symbian Foundation."

It seems that they'll also have the backing of Sony Ericsson, AT&T, LG Electronics, Samsung Electronics, STMicroelectronics, Texas Instruments, Vodafone, Motorola and NTT DoCoMo to various parts of this new(ish) platform.

That's some pretty heavy hitters.

Still, Nokia has announced a two-year timeframe before everything is out in the open - and now that the Google Mobile OS - Android - has been stalled for at least the next 1-3 quarters - the mobile wars are heating up. That's both good news and potentially really, really, really crappy news - depending on your point of view.

On the good news side - the investment and opening of the mobile OS systems is a really good thing. There is the potential for some really innovative stuff to come out in the mobile space - and even average-joe coders can get in on the action and make a difference.

On the oh-my-gosh-are-you-kidding-me side of the coin - NO ONE needs yet another mobile OS! Seriously, people - stop with PR b.s. and get some deliverable code before you start shouting it from the rooftops.

I mean, let's take a look at the cloudy mess we have already:

• Apple - closed OS - but with an SDK you can only program on a Mac
• RIM - closed OS - also with an SDK you can only program on Windows
• Microsoft - closed OS with an SDK you can only program on Windows
• Google - vaporware completely open OS that is now "officially" delayed - based on Linux
• Symbian - long-in-the-tooth OS that is going to be open over the next couple of years

So - where does that leave developers? I mean, really - are you going to write 5 versions of your application in completely different SDKs with 5 completely different operating systems and dependencies?

That doesn't include all the forking of the Android and Symbian projects (once they get out of the gate). At teh end of the day - what will the people that buy the phones go for? Whomever stakes out the platform (and handset and service and reliability and usefulness) that's the most popular will, at the end of the day, win.

There is certainly room in the world for 5 operating systems in terms of vertical devices and other specialty applications - but in the mass market - unless there are some really compelling advances - people are going to choose cool and sexy over features.

That means - Apple will probably win. They will continue to innovate and be copied by everyone else... unless there are some creative people who don't want to use the Apple Store to distribute their apps - and know Linux (or Symbian) and have a passion to put out really kick-ass apps.

Personally, I'm waiting for July 11th - just like everyone else...